Social Security COLA 2027: Latest Estimate After August Inflation

Could Social Security payments rise by about $75 a month in 2027? Current projections suggest the answer may be yes, but the official increase is still not final.

After the latest inflation data, AARP estimates the 2027 Social Security COLA at 3.6%, while the Senior Citizens League projects 3.5%. Both estimates are higher than the 2.8% increase paid in 2026.
 

How much could your check increase?

The exact increase depends on your current monthly benefit. Here is what a 3.5% or 3.6% COLA could add:

AARP estimates that a 3.6% COLA would add approximately $75 per month to the average retired worker’s benefit.

Remember, these are estimates, not guaranteed payment amounts. Your increase will be based on your own Social Security benefit.
 

Why August inflation matters

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that consumer prices increased 0.4% in August on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The inflation measure used for Social Security is the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W), not the standard CPI figure reported in headlines. August’s CPI-W was about 3.5% higher than a year earlier, helping keep 2027 COLA projections in the mid-3% range.
 

When will the official COLA be announced?

The Social Security Administration calculates the COLA using the average CPI-W readings for:

• July 2026.

• August 2026.

• September 2026.

September’s inflation report is scheduled for October 14, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. That report will provide the final data needed for the official 2027 COLA calculation.

Until then, the 3.5% and 3.6% figures are only forecasts.
 

When will the increase begin?

The 2027 COLA will apply to Social Security benefits beginning in January 2027. SSI recipients generally receive the increase in their December 31, 2026 payment because January 1 is a federal holiday.

The actual amount deposited into your account may also be affected by Medicare Part B premiums, taxes, overpayments or other deductions.
 

Will a larger COLA improve your budget?

A mid-3% increase would be larger than the 2026 adjustment, but it may not fully offset rising household expenses. Inflation continues to affect groceries, housing, medical care, utilities and transportation, costs that make up much of many retirees’ budgets.

This is why the percentage increase matters less than the actual dollar amount added to your check and how quickly your expenses are rising.
 

What to do now

Before the official announcement:

• Check your current benefit amount in your my Social Security account.

• Multiply your monthly benefit by 0.035 and 0.036 to estimate the possible increase.

• Review your Medicare premiums and other deductions.

• Watch for the official SSA announcement after October 14.

Bottom line

The latest projections put the 2027 Social Security COLA between 3.5% and 3.6%. A 3.6% increase could add about $75 to an average retired worker’s monthly benefit, but September inflation could still change the final number.

For now, use the estimates for planning, but wait for the official SSA COLA announcement before treating the figure as final.

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